2 Years Later… An Update on Why Microsoft Silverlight Will Fail
2 years ago, I wrote a pretty dismissive post about my views on Silverlight and where it would go. Then, a year ago I followed it point by point with another post to see where things had improved. It wasn’t that impressive. So, here you go… a bullet point by bullet point update, 2 years into it.
- No IDE for me – With some work, you can compile Siliverlight using Eclipse. I still want Blend on my Mac.
- No plug in for Linux - If you are a Linux user, you can download yourself a hobbled Silverlight version. Sounds fun, right?
- Market Penetration = Demand - A few months in, Flash player 10 is already over 60% market penetration. Microsoft still has yet to publish any sort of numbers on what sort of percentage of web users can use Silverlight content. It’s been two years! It’s estimated that the number is around 25%. Here’s the kicker though, IMHO, not a single remarkable rich media site has been created to showcase a new movie or recording from a band or singer using Silverlight as it’s sole delivery platform. MS is getting killed here. I’d love to get some info that disproves this, so if you can share something, some links, etc, please comment on this post.
- The Growing Mobile Content Market -Alright, so Adobe’s mobile strategy is pretty shoddy. MS hasn’t really capitalized on this though, so I’d call it a wash.
- Maturity – SilverLight is just entering it’s 3.0 version. They’ve added some cool features like multi-touch, that clearly eclipse the interactive design features on the Flash platform, but most of the additions and tweaks are really just MS playing catchup (eg. H.264 support). SilverLight out of the Browser doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me at all. If you have the .Net platform to deliver to, why worry about delivering a hobbled .Net app when you could have a fullblown WPF exe?
- The Developer Community - Obviously the .Net crowd is huge, but I’m not seeing any high profile defections, even in this down market, where developers should probably be trying out new tech to improve their marketability.
- CS3 – Microsoft still has no creative suite competitor.
So, beyond the bullet points, some things to consider. Silverlight was the video platform for MLB. They got pitched out for Flash. Silverlight was the video platform for the Olympics on NBC. They got dumped unceremoniously. Ouch. These two Defections really have to hurt. Silverlight needs customers like this to push adoption, but as it is right now they have a big chicken and egg situation on their hands.
That said, the tech is good for the industry. Really, Silverlight is doing a lot to push Flash’s advances. I also believe that the duoply of binary plugins, Flash and Silverlight is leading to a ton of innovation in the non-plugin RIA dev space. JQuery is super advanced, HTML 5 and CSS3, the Canvas tag, on and on. A lot of good things are happening right now because of this healthy competition.
There are some cool RIAs coming out in the Sliverlight space, Redliner being one of the best, IMHO. BTW, my favorite Silverlight “feature”? The fullscreen alert that appears when watching a video and the transition from an embedded video to a fullscreen video view on Silverlight is way nicer and smoother than the same function on Flash. Don’t believe me? Go to that Redliner site, watch the video and then jump to fullscreen… then do the same on Youtube. Which one looks designed? Which one looks cobbled together? Flash needs to allow for skinning of this message and better handling of the blank screen syndrome when going fullscreen.
Also, the recent additions of streaming services for Silverlight to IIS is a great move. Adobe, are you paying attention? FMS/FMIS might be priced a tad high now, comparatively, don’t ya think? Hmmm… free versus $995.
So what do you think about all of this? Is 2 years of Silverlight “experimentation” by MS enough to expect better results? Is this about where you thought it would be? I’d like to know what metrics MS is using to gauge it’s success.
Posted on May 14, 2009
Jason Terhorst May 14
“Streaming services for Silverlight” on IIS? Is there a way to stream via Apache? The limitations of IIS make it less-than-desirable.
Stefan May 14
Remember that IIS requires a recent version of Windows – FMS will also run on Linux. Taking that into account the price differences are less dramatic. Smooth streaming is not free.
Michael Ramirez May 14
I’ve seen alot of Flash vs Silverlight comparisons but they all are comparing the plugin’s. I would like to see a framework comparison of Flex SDK vs Silverlight SDK. If all else was equal who is building the better,faster, more robust framework.
ethan May 14
Well, i’ve tried Blend 3 times and i just do not like it as a workflow with visual studio. Also the language seems heavy to me. Lots of code to do basic things. I’m really hoping catalyst is better in that area. Flash IDE is getting old to use for mockups.
It’s all screwing around-in the elearning industry silverlight is so non-existent it’s in negative numbers. All my clients know what I’m talking about when i say flash. Silverlight might as well be the title of a new movie to them.
Honestly I think silverlight is only in development to have a product that the existing .net customers using the full MS software stack can grab when they want to build an RIA and say good enough. I don’t think they care if it’s ever more than 25% penetration. As long as those .net users do not download the flex sdk MS is happy.
Peter Fransen May 14
Although most (if not all) your arguments are true, I think your reasoning is flawed. The idea seems to be that Silverlight will fail because Flash is so much better. That’s like saying Flash will fail because html is so much better.
I see no reason why the two – Flash and Silverlight – can’t co-exist. Which one of the two will be the biggest 15 years from now, no one can tell.
When building RIAs at the company where I work, Flash never was and never will be an option: we simply don’t have any Flash developers on board. What we do have are some 40 really good .Net developers. For us, as for many, Silverlight is not an alternative to Flash, but rather an alternative to aspx/css/javascript.
I can see quite a few reasons why Silverlight could (not ‘will’) fail (some of which it shares with Flash), but none of them are mentioned in your article.
Chad May 14
Peter, thanks for the comment. I would say your situation seems familiar to me in terms of what I hear from other Silverlight devs. It is seen as an alternative to battleship grey apps, not Flex apps. I would be very interested in hearing the reasons you have in mind. Please share!
klimzk May 14
“As long as those .net users do not download the flex sdk MS is happy.”
You’ve got that right. Imagine if you are a manager assembling a developer team: Wouldn’t it be great that you can bring in a .Net guy that is likely capable of coding both SilverLight and WPF so you have both thin / rich clients covered? That’s where M$ can safely bank themselves on as far as penetration goes. I guarantee no .Net developer would be left behind when SL3 comes out. Currently they are on the sideline waiting for the release of Visual Studio 2010 and SilverLight 3.
Peter Fransen May 14
Reasons why I think Silverlight might fail:
- because Microsoft looses focus (not happening anytime soon!)
- because it’s a proprietary plugin used to view user-unfriendly, poorly accessible and hard to find RIA’s/websites (sort of like Flash)
- because Microsoft is a company for developers, not for designers and marketeers. That’s why Blend is not a tool for designers, but a design-tool for developers. A technology like Silverlight needs designers and marketeers to push it into the market.
- because something better comes along
i know these are all pretty general and some can be applied to about any technology today. But as you see, none of them have anything to do with Flash. (No, not even that last one
Fallon Massey May 14
It’s not even rempotely possible the Silverlight will fail, that’s not even an intelligent question.
The only question is when will it become pervasive enough to be a real option to using Flash/Flex.
I know thest types of articles get the MS haters all tuned up, just like saying Gay Marriage to the right wing, but all it does is blind them to the train coming at them 1000 mph.
I use both! Flash/Flex if it’s internet facing, and Silverlight everywhere else(intranet). The real truth is that Silverlight is marginally superior, but when people learn the true advantages of multithreading, this shouldn’t be a contest(unless Adobe does a rewrite).
Fallon Massey May 14
@Peter, You’re actually right about Blend. MS is fooling themselves that it’s a designers tool. It could be a designers tool in the future, it is in relatively early development, but it’s not one now.
Blend 3 is making some strides, but I look for version 4/5 to hit the mark a bit better for designers. As a developer, it works well for me, but the designers I know face two struggles. First the work flow is slightly off for them, and in Blend 2.5, it was way too developer centric, and they couldn’t get enough done.
Blend 3 solves some of that, but it’s nowhere near what Adobe has for designers.
Chad May 14
Fallon,
“It‚Äôs not even rempotely possible the Silverlight will fail, that‚Äôs not even an intelligent question.”
So you are saying MS is incapable of making products that fail? That argument doesn’t hold water.
MS Bob, Windows ME, Windows Vista (pre SP1), etc. etc. etc.
Fallon Massey May 15
@Chad, unless MS simply does the illogical, the developers it has in the .Net community will make it successful. Most of us that have been around the block know that customers make products fail by not using them.
The products you’ve listed fall into that category, and only the myopic fail to see what has been already stated. Silverlight will succeed for two simple reasons.
1. Silverlight is the only way out of the html/javascript/css mess, and
2. It’s the superior RIA on the market, only lacking installed runtimes.
I know you think installed runtimes equals some form of superiority, but it doesn’t(even though it could, but not in this case).
It’s only when you stop the hate, and become a true American, that you realize that competition is a good thing. If you don’t like Silverlight, don’t use it. Why do people feel the need to trash it.
The inferior fall of their own weight, you have nothing to fear, nothing here to see, move right along.
Chad May 15
Peter and Fallon,
You seem to think I hate Silverlight. Hardly… The demos and presentations I have seen and the sparse few sites I have used that leverage Silverlight are pretty cool. XAML is pretty cool, Blend is pretty cool. Multi-touch is very very cool! I don’t have a lot of experience developing in Silverlight, as mentioned in points one and seven. There is no way for a non-windows user to easily design, build and test in Silverlight.
I also mentioned that I like the competition in the post. I would say that I am a true American, as well. Born and raised here, actually. Simply stating that one solution appears weaker than another doesn’t have a thing to do with patriotism or nationality. Without Silverlight, I doubt that Adobe would have added the support for H264 as early as they did, or would be pushing towards Catalyst and Flex 4 as soon as they are.
On to you other points… Silverlight is not the only way out the HTML/CSS mess… Better standards support by browser manufacturers will help that, and Flash is already out there on virtually everyone’s computers. The larger scale JS frameworks like Sproutcore and JQuery standardize the way you can interact with the DOM, making some really cool stuff possible.
And Peter, I don’t really think most of my points of failure have anything to do with Flash either. I do give the flipside view of how Adobe may be working in or succeeding in the areas that I bring up, but the reasons for failure in those areas rest squarely in MS’s hands, not Adobe’s.
Again, thanks for coming by and adding to the discussion. If you are a Silverlight dev and have some public facing content to share, please post it here. I’d love to see it!
Edgar May 15
I’ve developed applications in both Flex and Silverlight, and I’ve found Silverlight to be a much better development experience. For starters Silverlight harnesses WCF making it much easier to call into an ASP.NET enabled server using Silverlight than it is using Flex. If you want to call into your server using Flex’s AMF you have to install a third party gateway like Fluorine. I definitely prefer Silverlight’s xaml to Flex’s mxml. Xaml is much more flexible than mxml, and I find it’s much easier to get the results I want. I still can’t get over Flex’s font model, which is unwieldy at best. The real kicker is the language support. C# is a much more rich and powerful programming language than Action Script 3.0, and since Silverlight harnesses the .NET framework I actually have access to a more mature class library in Silverlight than I do in Flex. Furthermore by using Silverlight I can create an end to end solution using just C#, and that is a huge win for maintainability. That being said I still love Flex, it’s a fantastic development platform. I’m aware that Flex definitely has some strengths over Silverlight; such as a larger control library. It needs to be mentioned that Silverlight is still a very new technology, and I’m really impressed with the inroads MS has been able to make with it. At any rate the competition is great as it will motivate both Adobe and MS to strengthen their platforms.
Killian May 15
@Chad I think you touch on the major reason why Flash devs should or can welcome Silverlight:
With no competition Flash would not have much incentive to improve!
@Fallon To say that silverlight is the way out of js/html/css is some heavy kool-aid my man.
I think MS will have trouble developing any sort of plugin platform just because of their reputation.
I have a question: why isn’t there an open source RIA platform worth looking into?
Doug Wheeler May 15
As one of the developers of Redliner, I thought it appropriate that I chime in here with some our thoughts and reasons for using Silverlight.
When we starting working on Redliner (over a year ago), we knew that time-to-market was important. As we were already .NET/C# developers, it was natural for us to look at Silverlight (we knew/know very little about Flash development). In our case, we weren’t looking for animation, multimedia, visual effects, etc. We were looking for a development platform/framework to write a desktop-level application that would run within the browser.
Silverlight is a fairly complete implementation of the .NET Framework and allowed us to take advantage of our existing knowledge. Since we also have a significant web service running our servers, it helps that we can used the same programming language, class libraries, and development tools for everything. We can even share source files between the .NET server-side code and the Silverlight client-side code.
The fact that few users currently have Silverlight installed is not a real handicap, since it’s a simple click to install (just like Flash). The only place we limited our use of Silverlight was on our website. We were concerned that requiring Silverlight to view our product information might be enough to keep casual web surfers from learing about Redliner. As a result, there are a few places on the web site where we are using YouTube videos either as a primary or fall-back solution. Once the user decides to try the application, installation of Silverlight is a minor step in the process.
As I stated earlier, my knowledge of Flash development is very limited, but for us, Silverlight seemed like an ideal platform to build a word processor/document collaboration system that had portions running on the client system and portions running on the server.
Regarding your specific points:
1. IDE – We develop on Windows systems so this isn’t an issue (we have a Mac for compability testing – and yes, there was some work to provide equivalent support on both platforms).
2. Linux – Although we’d like as many users as possible, losing the Linux-only users (until a decent solution is complete) was an acceptable trade-off for us.
3. Market Penetration – This is really a reflection of how much Silverlight is being used. How many users alread have Silverlight installed doesn’t really matter to us. Installing Silverlight is just part of the initial “getting started” process for the user – and is much less onerous than traditional packaged software installation.
This isn’t a contest, the user isn’t choosing a platform to support. Both Flash and Silverlight coexist and the success of one has no impact on the other.
4. Mobile – I agree. The platform everyone wants to be on is the iPhone, and neither Flash nor Silverlight are supported. The Mono project is working on a way to build a Silverlight application into a stand-alone iPhone application, but there’s no assurance this will happen any time soon (or at all). In our case, mobile devices aren’t really suitable for our full application, so we will be looking into writing apps for mobile devices to provide some limited level of functionality.
5. Maturity – From our point of view, we are looking at the maturity of the .NET platform. We are much more concerned with the class libraries, database support, threading, asynchronous I/O, etc. that with multimedia features. For us, Silverlight is our OS.
6. Developer Community – As I stated above, as .NET/C# developers, Silveright was a natural choice for us. We didn’t have to learn a new environment, language, event system, etc.; we just had to learn what Silverlight’s limitations were vs. the full .NET framework. There is also a plethora of sample code and documentation that was written for .NET that can be used either as-is or with minor porting on Silverlight.
7. CS3 – Yes, we use Photoshop and Illustrator. I’m not sure how anything would be different if Microsoft had comparable tools unless those tools were fully integrated into the Visual Studio IDE. FWIW, we never use Blend – all of our XAML is hand-coded (as is all the HTML/ASPX on the web site).
If you or anyone else has any question about our experiences developing Redliner using Silverlight, feel free to ask and I’ll do my best to answer.
John C. Welch May 15
One important advantage to Silverlight: From the human POV, I’ve yet to see a Silverlight site assrape a browser the way Flash does.
Flash may be the tits from the dev. POV, but watching it KILL browser speed and usability? Bring.On.Silverlight.
Fallon Massey May 15
@Killian – I apologize, I should have said that for me, I saw Silverlight as probably the best way out of the html/javascript/css nightmare.
Simply because I love the .Net platform, and we were a Sun/IBM/Java shop 5 years ago. C# is, IMO, just enough better than Java(meaning the language, not the platform), that it made a lot more sense. I do admit that Java allowed me to move to C# a lot easier, but Flash didn’t help with moving to Silverlight, and that’s a very important point.
Flash is strange to real developers, where as Flex made much more sense. ActionScript is so prmitive compared to C#, it’s only a matter of time before the applications reflect that superiority.
However, Flash/Flex apps are leading Silverlight apps in almost every area, and the BEST designers are doing those apps, so they look great. That won’t change for awhile, so Adobe has time to do things to keep their dominance.
However, history is not on their side, the anti Microsoft camp tends to always suffer from delusions of superiority, which has led to their demise every time.
You have to innovate your way to wins, not litigate or attempt to talk your way to better products.
Finally, the best product isn’t defined by look and feel, or even technical superiority, or ease of use. It’s defined by some combination of these attributes.
DOS was better than the Mac, simply because more people used it for whatever reason(and I had a Mac back then, as well as a PC). The Mac was prettier, easier to use, but it lost…
John Allwright May 15
Chad – one factual correction (I’ll leave all the subjective stuff aside), NBC have confirmed that the 2010 Winter Olympics will be using Silverlight.
I’d suggest you check out the MIX keynote from March where Perkins Miller, SVP Digital Media at NBC talks about how happy they are with Silverlight and why they’re using it for Vancouver. (http://videos.visitmix.com/MIX09/KEY01 fastforward to 77:10).
And how about Netflix who are using Silverlight for their online delivery of over 12,000 titles to subscribers. Hear what they have to say on the same video (59:30).
John Allwright
Silverlight Product Manager
Microsoft
Chad May 15
John,
Thanks for coming by and offering the correction. I’ll make note of it in the post. I was simply going off of what I had thought was an authoritative source in the matter, Readwriteweb, Vallywag, etc. It turns out that was inaccurate. The NFL did however drop Silverlight for Flash, so scratch one, chalk another one up.
I really do appreciate someone so close to the product as yourself taking the time to come to my site and comment. I would like it if you could take the time to explain which of the 7 main points I make in the 3 articles is actually subjective though. They all seem pretty quantifiable to me.
Just to let you know, though, I do indeed plan on completing the install of Eclipse4SL as soon as I get all the dependencies taken care of. You might want them to post those prereqs on the site. Usually installing an Eclipse plug-in takes 5 minutes. This one took 4 tries looking through the various repositories to get all the dependancies taken care of. Hopefully, once that is done, I’ll get a chance to see for myself the power of the SDK and come around.
killian tobin May 18
@Fallon: no offense taken. FYI I’m a PC
and I’ve worked in C# and .Net. I don’t share your opinion that x is a better language. A wise man told me that: “The last language you used is usually the best”.
I don’t think any of these (Flash or Silverlight) are really going to be the way out of a html/js/css combo because they are both proprietary tech.
I think people are going to choose Flash for the time being just because the installed base is so high- just because a technology is better or easier doesn’t really mean anything in terms of popularity/support(Beta v VHS or OODBMS vs RDBMS anyone?).
Based on what I have heard about Silverlight, I think its fair to say that ActionScript is programming built for web designers and vice-versa for Silverlight (web designing built for programmers).
No knocks on either crowd, but the obvs serve different set of people. Silverlight in my opinion has a long uphill battle against an entrenched platform.
From a user’s point of view it is hard to see what Silverlight really offers that is much different than flash. (I hear about performance and dev time but I’m sure you can write a processor intensive Silverlight app).
MLB sucked last year, then got better as they streamlined somethings. MLB after it’s switch to Flash this year sucked and then got better after they worked out some kinks.
Either way: I think Silverlight is still a good thing in general- any monopoly gets complacent and if Adobe needs MS to light a fire under them then so be it. I say bring on the open-sourced RIA platform and then we can watch a real fight
the website guy Jul 12
I would definitely agree that silverlight will make flash better simply by offering competition… BUT, I hate both platforms. I would love to see javascript win the race. Nowadays, libraries like jquery can do most of the things you would want flash for.
Mike Aug 8
Microsoft needs to add IDE and a Linux plugin and that should help their brand.
iphone development Jan 2
Great information about the mobile information and You’re pretty smart,I was searching for similar information. Thanks for it and i promise that i will be visiting here often from now !
Ian Feb 18
As an amateur web developer, I personally expected Silverlight to flop within a year or so, but it proved me wrong. If nothing else, it introduces vital competition to the flash platform, which has made some remarkable achievements over the past 2 years (I wonder why…). What really surprised me was NBC’s choice to put the 2010 Olympic site in Silverlight, although it is really just the videos that are in Silverlight; the other animations are still in Flash. (Intersting combination). Because of this, I finally gave into trying it the other night.
As a mac user, I found the player very responsive and well designed compared to something like the hulu player; whoever built it did a good job. Although it appears that Silverlight is quite partial to the Microsoft media formats, they do have the advantage of modern technology on the mac and linux platforms. The current Flash code is quite archaic and wastes a lot of processing power running old libraries. If Microsoft can fit itself in this niche, they may have a chance, but otherwise Flash still seems superior.
Vegas Web Designer Mar 8
It seems Silverlight is still trying to play catchup… I’m just not seeing a super-healthy community forming a strong backbone yet. Maybe I’m just not looking hard enough? Until I see a lot more from Silverlight, I’ll be watching from the sidelines while developing Flash RIAs.
ewart Apr 19
Nice marketing with that headline. I see Silverlight 4 is just out, I’d say despite the 10 year head start by flash, silverlight has overtaken flash in some dimensions while behind in others. What will the post read this year? “..Why silverlight _might_ fail?” and next year, “why silverlight is here to stay”.
Roger Jul 5
I use to work with Microsoft and uses their products, All I can say is that, they are not competitive enough to battle MAC success in technology, silverlight is fine but not too good for me, I’m a little bit afraid, it might crash my PC.