Why Microsoft Silverlight Will Fail.
Being a long time Macromedia developer, recently converted to Adobe, of course I am biased. This post will do little to prove otherwise. On top of this, I favor OpenSource technologies for my server side development stack (LAMP, please). Furthermore, I use primarily Macintosh computers for my day to day work. So it is of little surprise to anyone that knows me that Microsoft’s WPF/E now redubbed “Silverlight” doesn’t really impress me.
My main reasons (And please, correct me if I am wrong):
- No IDE for me – The development path is currently platform specific to Windows. Not even an open compiler or server side compiler for Linux is available. Use Expression Blend on my Mac? Not happening.
- No plug in for Linux - Even Adobe has managed to deliver it’s modern plugin to Linux users. I only use Linux as a server platform, but with Ubuntu, etc making inroads on the desktop, it’s nice to have it as an option.
- Market Penetration = Demand - With Flash player 9 on 80%+ (and well over 90% at Flash Player version
of all end user web clients, my audience has currently spoken. They use Flash player. With YouTube and pretty much ever major motion picture / recording artist / sporting good microsite developed in Flash, this probably isn’t changing any time soon. - The Growing Mobile Content Market - With FlashLite2, Adobe has proven they are serious about mobile devices multimedia delivery. FL3 looks to be even more so, adding support for FLV. Don’t see that on the Silverlight front, yet.
- Maturity – With FlashPlayer at version 9, Silverlight as a first gen product has a ways to go to add that feeling of security that I get when I recommend a Flash based solution to a client. The SWF file format is over a decade old. It’s not going anywhere anytime soon.
- The Developer Community - As a Flash developer, I get a built in community doing great things (The CASA Framework, Tweener, PaperVision3D, etc.). With my OpenSource work (Drupal, PHP, Apache, MySQL, etc) I get the same… Whenever I have worked on a ASP/IIS solution, everything is a pay-for situation. Pay for support, extensions, scripts, etc. Do I want to get into a community like that? Not so much.
- CS3 - With an integrated suite behind me, I know I can be as creative as I need to be. No such luck on the MS Silverlight end… Do they have a compositor? An industry standard photo retouching tool? A vector illustration tool? Any sort of “roundtrip” editing? Nope.
I’m sure that if I sat and thought about it, I could probably list about a dozen more… But at this point, color me unimpressed. I’d welcome those more knowledgeable on the Silverlight front to refute my arguments.





